As NFL training camps open, let’s take a big-picture look at the 2024 season. You could earn a profit with a sharp eye on trends, key stats and the latest rumblings across the league.
We’re going to examine DraftKings’ NFL win totals, focusing on each team’s line that’s closest to even (+100) odds, and predict whether that club wins more (over) or fewer (under) games than that number (e.g., 8.5 wins).
Of course, these are early bets two months away from Week 1.
Nonetheless, bettors should keep tabs on these over/unders or lock in some of the stronger bets below. Some of these lines could move slightly, so you can responsibly place a wager now for good value.
Offensively, the Arizona Cardinals will be a much better team this year compared to the previous season.
Quarterback Kyler Murray is healthy after going through an extended recovery from a torn ACL last offseason. He will also have a new playmaker in rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr.
In the backfield, running back Trey Benson has the speed to complement James Conner’s bruising running style.
Entering his second season, left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. has lofty aspirations with the talent to fulfill his goals.
If Drew Petzing is a decent play-caller, Arizona’s offense could finish within the top 10 across multiple categories.
On the flip side, the Cardinals may not have done enough to patch up their defensive holes.
In 2023, Arizona gave up the most rushing yards per game, allowed the second-most points and ranked 31st in pressure rate.
Without a top-notch free-agent pickup for their defense, the Cardinals will have to rely heavily on rookies Darius Robinson and Max Melton to make an immediate impact on the defensive line and in the secondary, respectively.
Arizona also needs edge-rusher BJ Ojulari to further develop into a complete three-down edge-rusher while Zaven Collins continues to grow in his second year at outside linebacker.
If the Cardinals struggle to stop their opponents, Murray will have to throw for 4,000-plus yards in a season for the first time in his career to keep his team in the NFC playoff race.
Murray is capable of posting gaudy passing numbers, but he’s still getting used to Petzing’s offense after missing half of the 2023 campaign.
The Cardinals will improve, though until that defense pulls its weight, they will take smaller steps rather than big leaps in the right direction. They’ll finish 6-11.
Assuming Kirk Cousins fully recovers from a torn Achilles, the Atlanta Falcons should have one of the most improved offenses from a season ago.
With Cousins under center, we will finally get to see wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts turn more of their potential into production for what could be a top-10 passing attack.
However, Cousins may need a few weeks to build a connection with his playmakers in a new system under first-time offensive play-caller Zac Robinson.
Though Atlanta will play four of its first five games at home, the club may get off to a rocky start with the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the schedule in that stretch.
Going against two playoff-caliber squads and a couple of division rivals with a new offense through the first five weeks, the Falcons may have to dig themselves out of an early hole.
However, because the Falcons play in one of the league’s weakest divisions, they can bounce back to make playoffs, but bettors should take the under on a 9.5-win total.
The Baltimore Ravens have a tough path to 11 wins with their current roster.
Sure, the Ravens signed running back Derrick Henry, who’s still a Pro Bowl-caliber player, but they also lost importante assets.
This offseason, quarterback Lamar Jackson has slimmed down to 205 pounds, which isn’t ideal. He has an injury history, missing 10 games between 2021 and 2022, and the Ravens lost three of their starting offensive linemen (guards John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler and tackle Morgan Moses) from the previous campaign.
Moreover, left tackle Ronnie Stanley has missed 36 games over the last four seasons.
If Baltimore’s offensive line doesn’t hold up in the trenches, Jackson, with a leaner frame, could take a lot of punishment in the pocket and as a ball-carrier.
The Ravens also lost defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who is the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks. He fielded a top-nine defense in scoring and total yards in 2022 and 2023. The team hopes first-time defensive play-caller Zach Orr can maintain a top-tier unit.
With the difficulty of playing a first-place schedule in a tough division, along with importante departures for the offense and defense, Baltimore finishes with fewer than 11 wins.
The Buffalo Bills aren’t going to self-destruct after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, but their offense took a importante hit after that transaction.
Unless rookie second-round wideout Keon Coleman becomes an instant star, we will find out if Josh Allen needs a No. 1 wide receiver to post Pro Bowl-level passing numbers.
Allen still has a decent pass-catching group that includes Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mack Hollins.
Yet one has to wonder who Allen will target in crucial moments of games and in 3rd-and-long situations.
While it’s easy for Allen to say he’ll target the open man, we know quarterbacks have their go-to options and safety blankets within the offense.
If Allen doesn’t have unwavering trust in at least one of his pass-catchers, he could be susceptible to more erratic sequences in his attempts to make game-changing plays.
As of now, Buffalo has two new starting safeties. The club needs cornerback Christian Benford to take a third-year leap. Fellow cornerback Rasul Douglas has to replicate his strong performances from the second half of the 2023 campaign (post-trade) to solidify the boundary.
All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano will attempt to bounce back from a torn ACL and a leg fracture.
Buffalo may be a solid team in the upcoming campaign, though bettors should take the under on 10.5 wins with importante changes and multiple question marks across the club’s roster.
The Carolina Panthers will show improvement following a two-win season—but not by much.
Oddsmakers set the bar a little too high for the Panthers.
This offseason, Carolina bolstered quarterback Bryce Young’s wide receiver group, acquiring Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers and drafting Xavier Legette in the first round.
However, head coach Dave Canales wants to establish the run game with veteran ball-carriers Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, who averaged less than 3.9 yards per carry last year, and rookie Jonathon Brooks, who’s on the mend from a torn ACL.
Though Brooks could be ready to play Week 1, the Panthers may ease him into the offense.
As Young continues to develop behind an offensive line that probably needs time to jell with two new starting guards and center Austin Corbett trying to bounce back from a season-ending injury, other teams may have an early-season advantage against them in the trenches.
Carolina has not improved its win total by four or more games since its turnaround between 2016 and 2017. Don’t expect it to make that leap this year.
The Chicago Bears have garnered the offseason buzz that comes with taking a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick.
That said, the Bears can exceed expectations because of their collection of talent on both sides of the ball.
Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams will throw to DJ Moore, who’s coming off his most productive season, six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen and rookie first-rounder Rome Odunze.
Williams also has a pair of pass-catching tight ends, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, and running back D’Andre Swift, who will be an asset in the short passing game.
Behind an offensive line that returns four players who started in at least 11 games last season, Williams should be able to deliver pinpoint passes to his loaded receiving group.
The Bears will be able to take pressure off Williams with their defense.
Chicago has a solid cornerback unit led by a trio of recent second-rounders: Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon. Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards have become a solid linebacker duo. Montez Sweat is coming off his first Pro Bowl campaign.
The Bears will face four rebuilding squads: the Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots. With those matchups, Chicago clears the over with 10 wins.
The Cincinnati Bengals’ win total comes down to Joe Burrow’s health.
In 2022, Burrow played 16 games. That year, he made the AFC Pro Bowl roster, and the Bengals went 12-4.
Last year, at 9-8, Cincinnati barely missed the playoffs with Jake Browning filling in for Burrow, who missed seven contests because of a wrist injury.
Offensively, the Bengals have more continuity than the Pittsburgh Steelers, and they’re healthier (for now) than the Cleveland Browns unit.
Outside of the AFC North, Cincinnati’s schedule works out in its protección.
The Bengals will play the New England Patriots, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans, all rebuilding clubs that finished with six or fewer wins last season.
Even if the Bengals split the season series with each of their AFC North rivals, their dispuesto out-of-division matchups will allow them to string together enough wins for the over.
Last year, the Cleveland Browns made the playoffs with Joe Flacco under center and running back Nick Chubb on the sideline recovering from a torn ACL. They went 11-6.
So, the Browns will take another step forward with a healthy Deshaun Watson, right?
Well, not so fast.
As we pointed out in our predictions for the worst team in every division, Watson hasn’t played well when healthy, and he’s still recovering from shoulder surgery. Chubb doesn’t have a timetable for a return yet. Cleveland also has three offensive tackles coming off season-ending injuries.
This year, Flacco isn’t there to elevate the Browns offense. He signed with the Indianapolis Colts.
Don’t put your hopes and hard-earned money on Watson finally hitting his stride coming off a serious injury. Even if Chubb is ready to suit up for Week 1, he’s unlikely to pick up his workhorse load right away.
The Browns defense likely remains stout, but their banged-up offense may be a ejecutor in the team’s regression.
Bettors can confidently lock in the under for the Dallas Cowboys. This team isn’t built like the last three squads that finished 12-5.
This year, the Cowboys could struggle to move the ball efficiently on the ground. They lost two offensive linemen in free agency, tackle Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz, and running back Tony Pollard.
The Cowboys have a couple of recent first-round picks on the left side of their offensive line, and one of them, Tyler Smith, earned a Pro Bowl nod in 2023. However, they don’t have an explosive ball-carrier to complement the passing game.
Dallas has yet to make a big move for a running back, which means Ezekiel Elliott, who’s seen a decline in his promedio yards per carry since 2021, will likely lead the backfield.
In a contract year, quarterback Dak Prescott will feel a lot of pressure to carry the offense without a strong run game, which may lead to unnecessary turnovers and miscues.
Dallas may also look different defensively under Mike Zimmer, who replaces Dan Quinn.
Quinn fielded a stingy defense that forced turnovers at a high rate, which became a staple of the Cowboys’ 12-5 teams in each of the previous three years.
Now that Quinn is the head coach of the Washington Commanders, the Cowboys may not sweep the season series with their rival in the nation’s caudal as they have done in two of the last three years.
This year, the Cowboys’ roster weaknesses could hurt them as they play other teams that finished first in division races last season.
With pressure on Prescott and reportedly (h/t Tyler Dunne of Go Long) some tension between head coach Mike McCarthy, who’s in a contract year, and owner Jerry Jones, the Cowboys may not even reach double-digit wins for the 2024 term.
The Denver Broncos will be a sub-.500 team, but head coach Sean Payton should be able to keep them out of the running for a top-five draft pick.
In all 16 years as a head coach, Payton has led his teams to at least seven wins in a season.
Yes, Payton worked with Drew Brees for most of his career in New Orleans, but he went 9-8 with Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian and Ian Book all starting at least one game in 2021.
Last season, the Broncos went 8-9 as Payton’s relationship with Russell Wilson deteriorated over the quarterback’s contract.
Denver doesn’t have a clear-cut starting quarterback and its defense finished in the bottom six in scoring and total yards last season. For those reasons, oddsmakers provided an appropriate win total line.
Nonetheless, Payton, through his coaching acumen, has earned the benefit of the doubt that he can turn rookie first-rounder Bo Nix, journeyman Jarrett Stidham or Zach Wilson, a recent No. 2 overall draft pick who flopped with the New York Jets, into a serviceable starting quarterback.
The Broncos can also use the run game to ease some pressure off the starting signal-caller. Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Audric Estime, Jaleel McLaughlin and undrafted rookie Blake Watson could form a solid backfield platoon.
Edge-rushers Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto combined for 16.5 sacks and 46 pressures last year, showing the potential to uplift a subpar defense.
Denver finishes a level above the worst teams in the league with six or seven wins.
The Detroit Lions increased their win total by at least three games between the last two seasons.
After going 12-5 last year, the Lions don’t have much room for improvement in the standings, though they’re not going to regress either.
Detroit didn’t lose offensive coordinator Ben Johnson in the offseason head coaching carousel.
Secondly, the Lions may have turned one of their biggest defensive weaknesses into a strength with the addition of cornerbacks Terrion Arnold, Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson.
After a first-pace division finish in 2023, the Lions will play a more difficult schedule outside their division, but they’re stocked with enough talent to finish with one of the league’s best records and vie for the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
In the NFL, a player’s progression isn’t always linear, especially quarterbacks who need pass protection and playmakers to perform at their best.
The Green Bay Packers have a formidable supporting cast around Love, though.
Green Bay could keep most of its offensive line from the previous season intact, and the club drafted offensive lineman Jordan Morgan in the first round to shore up the unit.
Because the Packers have a young pass-catching core, they can watch that group grow with Love in the passing game. As rookies, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft all made importante contributions.
Green Bay could finish within the top 10 in multiple passing categories if Christian Watson stays healthy.
The Packers hired former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley to replace defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who led an underachieving unit equipped with several first-round picks from recent years.
Overall, the Packers are a team on the rise and should be the biggest threat to knock off the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions.
In 2023, the Houston Texans emerged as one of the league’s biggest surprises. Now, they need to play up to high expectations.
After winning the AFC South title last season, the Texans will play against other teams that finished atop divisions last year: the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys. They will also face the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions in matchups against the AFC East and NFC North, respectively.
If the Texans knock off at least three of those NFL heavyweights, they will cruise to a double-digit win campaign. With their offseason additions, they can handle stiff competition.
The Texans added All-Pro-Pro Bowl-caliber players in wideout Stefon Diggs, defensive end Danielle Hunter and running back Joe Mixon to a 10-win roster.
Last year, the Texans went 4-2 against their AFC South foes. Looking at the Jacksonville Jaguars’ late-season collapse in 2023 and the Tennessee Titans’ rebuilding project this year, Houston could win four or more division matchups in the upcoming term.
Houston crushes this line and vies for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
This offseason, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has generated offseason buzz as a reason for team optimism.
As a passer, Richardson experienced some highs and lows in four games before he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5.
Nonetheless, Richardson’s dynamic playmaking ability, using his arm and legs, in conjunction with Shane Steichen’s track record of developing athletic quarterbacks (Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts) should raise your excitement level for the Colts offense.
Richardson has a solid offensive line that will return all of its starters from last season, and Indianapolis selected big-play receiver Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the 2024 draft. Richardson can also hand off to All-Pro running back and 2021 rushing champion Jonathan Taylor.
If Richardson stays on the field, the Colts could finish the 2024 term with a top-five offense after they ranked 10th in points with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew II last season.
By the way, one can make a case that Indianapolis drafted the best edge-rusher in the 2024 class, Laiatu Latu, to improve a bottom-five scoring defense.
All signs point to the Colts at least matching their 9-8 record from last year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ backslide between December and January of last year may be an aberration or a sign of what’s to come in the upcoming season.
Though head coach Doug Pederson called out Trevor Lawrence for turning the ball over at an alarming rate, Jacksonville still signed its franchise quarterback to a market-setting deal.
Perhaps Lawrence has learned from his costly mistakes, but Pederson has to do a better job of calling the offense.
Since Pederson’s Super Bowl-winning campaign with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2017, he has fielded just one offense that ranked within the top 10 in scoring or total yards.
With Pederson’s trend of promedio offensive attacks and a transition with a new play-caller on defense, Jacksonville seems likely to hover around .500.
This is a sharp win total line, though Pederson’s mediocrity and Lawrence’s inconsistencies will hold this team under nine wins.
The Kansas City Chiefs will face the pressure of trying to win a third consecutive Super Bowl while playing through a first-place schedule.
With the focus on becoming the first NFL team to win three straight titles, you can understand why they may drop an extra game or two en route to a playoff appearance.
Last year, the Chiefs proved that they do not need the comfort of home-field advantage to win a Lombardi Trophy.
With that in mind, the Chiefs may opt to rest banged-up players, especially toward the end of the season, or lighten their workloads as long as they’re in the playoff picture.
Last season, Travis Kelce saw a slight reduction in his snap count, playing 77 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, his lowest rate since 2014.
Fortunately for Kansas City, wideouts Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy can pick up the slack when Kelce is limited or if he’s on the sideline. Running back Isiah Pacheco could take on a bigger role on the ground if necessary.
Since Patrick Mahomes took over the starting quarterback job, the Chiefs have won fewer than 12 games in a season merienda, last year. Though in pursuit of history, the Chiefs may face their most challenging campaign in the Andy Reid-Mahomes era.
Even with continuity for a defense that ranked ninth in scoring last season and Antonio Pierce’s successful push to earn the full-time head coaching job, the Las Vegas Raiders have a modest win total line because of their quarterback situation.
An offseason battle between Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew II isn’t going to generate a ton of excitement outside the fanbase.
The Raiders selected O’Connell in the fourth round of last year’s draft, and he has limited athleticism. Minshew has bounced around the league over the past few years.
Nonetheless, the Raiders just need a serviceable quarterback to hover around the .500 mark.
Whoever starts under center will have established wide receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers on the perimeter, along with pass-catching tight ends Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers at their disposal in the passing game.
If the Raiders offensive line holds up, either O’Connell or Minshew could put together a decent season with the team’s set of playmakers.
Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has to put his quarterback and playmakers in positions to produce at a high level. He struggled to do that with Justin Fields in Chicago, but some of the blame should also go to the quarterback.
Las Vegas clears this line by one or two wins, assuming the offense isn’t as stagnant as last year’s group that went through midseason coaching changes.
In comparison to the previous season, the Los Angeles Chargers have a less talented roster but a far more accomplished head coach.
Jim Harbaugh has an impressive resume that illustrates his immediate impact.
Harbaugh’s last three teams—the Michigan Wolverines, San Francisco 49ers and Stanford—won more games in his first season than in the previous campaign before his arrival.
The Chargers only won five games last year, but they have the talent to make a quick turnaround under a quality coaching staff.
When they’re on the field together, pass-rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa can be a game-wreaking duo on the edges.
Derwin James Jr. is still a Pro Bowl-caliber player, and he only sat out one game last year after missing significant time because of injuries early in his career.
Most importantly, Harbaugh has a franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert who’s played well despite the Chargers finding ways to underachieve under former head coach Brandon Staley.
Without established starting wide receivers and a couple of running backs with a recent injury history, the Chargers offense may be underwhelming at times, which is why they won’t make a huge leap in Harbaugh’s first year.
Yet Los Angeles should finish above the .500 line with Herbert under center and Harbaugh’s coaching influence.
Last year, the Los Angeles Rams surprised many people (we told you they could do it) and emerged as a playoff team with several young players who contributed in big roles.
Puka Nacua broke rookie receiving records. Kyren Williams had a breakout year, finishing third leaguewide in rushing. As rookies, Kobie Turner and Byron Young combined for 17 sacks and 50 pressures.
This year, Turner and Young will likely face a tougher challenge in generating pocket pressure without Aaron Donald present to command double- and triple-teams.
However, the Rams have a defensive front that can post respectable pass-rushing numbers and stop the run with rookies Jared Encontrarse and Braden Fiske added to the mix. As the team’s first two picks in the 2024 draft, they can have a major impact.
No individual on the Rams roster will compare to Donald, but this group has the potential to wreak havoc as a collective unit.
If quarterback Matthew Stafford stays healthy, the Rams could be a thorn in the San Francisco 49ers’ side while competing for the NFC West title this year.
The Miami Dolphins covered this line in two of the last four seasons, and they won nine games in 2021 and 2022.
Bettors may have to sweat out this win total, though the Dolphins should be able to finish with double-digit wins in back-to-back campaigns.
First and foremost, the Dolphins offense will continue to run laps around lesser opponents. Tua Tagovailoa has the fastest group of playmakers leaguewide. He doesn’t need a strong arm or elite athleticism to post gaudy passing numbers.
Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Odell Beckham Jr. can all rack up yards after the catch on short completions.
Miami could also finish top five in rushing with a three-man backfield that features Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and rookie fourth-rounder Jaylen Wright. Last year, Mostert and Achane led the Dolphins’ sixth-ranked ground attack.
The Dolphins pass rush will need time to round into form as Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips work their way back from season-ending injuries.
Collectively, Zach Sieler, Calais Campbell and rookie first-rounder Chop Robinson can generate enough pocket pressure to make opponents respect the Dolphins’ pass rush.
Miami claims the AFC East crown with 11 wins thanks in large part to head coach Mike McDaniel’s track meet offense.
The Minnesota Vikings lost four-time Pro Bowl quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency. They signed journeyman Sam Darnold and selected J.J. McCarthy in the first round of this year’s draft.
Because of the quarterback downgrade, oddsmakers set a low bar for the Vikings, but this looks like easy money for bettors who protección the over.
Regardless of who starts under center for the Vikings, their offense won’t be as potent as the last few years with Cousins.
However, Minnesota still finished fifth in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns without Cousins for about half of the previous season.
In Cousins’ absence, head coach and offensive play-caller Kevin O’Connell worked with backup signal-callers Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Antesala to move the ball through the air.
Based on Minnesota’s passing numbers for the 2023 term, O’Connell may be able to get the best out of Darnold or fast-track McCarthy’s development.
Darnold or McCarthy will have a pass-catching group that features All-Pro receiver Justin Jefferson, budding second-year wideout Jordan Addison and two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson for support in the passing game.
With those offensive playmakers and a defense that showed significant improvement under play-caller Brian Flores, Minnesota hovers close to .500 in a seven-to-eight-win campaign.
The New England Patriots will be in the running for a top-three pick in the 2025 draft.
In the first year of the post-Bill Belichick era, the Patriots must find their identity on both sides of the ball.
This offseason, New England turned over its offensive coaching staff. Jacoby Brissett and rookie first-rounder Drake Maye will compete for the starting quarterback job. Brissett is a journeyman, and according to The Athletic’s Chad Graff, the Patriots see Maye as a rookie who is “a bit raw.”
The Patriots promoted Jerod Mayo from inside linebackers coach to head coach, which maintains some defensive continuity. But the club regressed on that side of the ball last year, finishing 15th in scoring, the unit’s lowest rank in that category since 2011.
With a game manager or somewhat of a rookie project under center and a defense in need of a bounce-back year, the Patriots have a low ceiling in terms of win potential. They’re a three-to-four-win team that may get worse before it shows improvement.
Also, remember that Belichick’s disciples have generally struggled to run the show as head coaches.
Last season, the New Orleans Saints had a top-nine scoring offense and defense but still missed the playoffs with a 9-8 record. They didn’t fare well against solid competition, going 2-6 against teams that finished the campaign with a winning record.
In four of the first six weeks of the upcoming campaign, the Saints will face playoff teams from the previous term. So, we’ll find out if they measure up against contenders early in the season.
Because of question marks across the offensive line, quarterback Derek Carr has to be on high alert.
New Orleans will move Taliese Fuaga from his natural position at right tackle to the left side. The Saints placed right tackle Ryan Ramczyk on the reserve/physically unable perform list, and he’ll miss the entire 2024 season, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. New Orleans doesn’t have a surefire starting left guard, either.
The Saints defense will keep them competitive in games, but bettors should be concerned about Carr’s performance behind a potentially shaky offensive line.
This offseason, the New York Giants lost two-time Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley to the Philadelphia Eagles, tight end Darren Waller retired and Daniel Jones is recovering from a torn ACL.
Jones doesn’t have “any doubt” that he will be ready to start Week 1, but his supporting cast is below promedio.
Other than rookie wideout Malik Nabers, the Giants don’t have a dynamic playmaker in the backfield or on the perimeter. As Barkley’s likely replacement, Devin Singletary isn’t someone who’s going to force defensive coordinators to game-plan for an extra hour or so during the week.
This year, Big Blue will have little margin for error with Jones, who hasn’t played up to first-round expectations, and his supporting cast.
The Giants will win some games with their defense, but not enough to get to seven.
Forget the offseason hoopla around Aaron Rodgers’ pre-planned trip to Egypt, which caused a schedule conflict with the New York Jets mandatory minicamp dates.
If Rodgers is healthy, coming off a torn Achilles, he will provide a much-needed spark to the Jets offense.
Furthermore, you can argue that Rodgers will play with his strongest supporting cast in a long time.
This offseason, the Jets loaded up on skill players at running back and wide receiver and fortified their offensive line.
In free agency, the Jets signed left tackle Tyron Smith, left guard John Simpson and wideout Mike Williams. They also acquired right tackle Morgan Moses from the Baltimore Ravens.
In April, the Jets drafted offensive tackle Olu Fashanu in the first round, wideout Malachi Corley in the third round and running backs Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis in the fourth and fifth rounds, respectively.
Rodgers has everything he needs to lead a much-improved offense that can complement a stingy defense.
If the Jets can handle the spotlight of playing in six prime-time games (seven standalone contests) within the first 11 weeks of the season, they’re at least a wild-card team that finishes with double-digit wins.
The Philadelphia Eagles took a nosedive in the second half of the 2023 season, but that shouldn’t scare bettors away from the over.
Despite a disappointing end to the previous campaign, the Eagles cleared this line with an 11-6 record.
Philadelphia replaced both coordinators this offseason, hiring offensive play-caller Kellen Moore and defensive play-caller Vic Fangio, two established coaches.
As long as Moore keeps the Eagles offense within the top 10 in scoring (the unit finished seventh last season), Fangio just needs to moderately improve the defense to keep this team on track for another 11-win campaign.
The Eagles play in a division with two rebuilding teams, the Washington Commanders and New York Giants. They will play three of their first four games against NFC South clubs, arguably the league’s weakest division.
The Eagles can boost their confidence with a quick start to the season and take care of business in their division matchups to reach 11 wins.
Entering his 18th year as the Pittsburgh Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a losing season, and we won’t bet against him now.
The Steelers signed quarterback Russell Wilson, who had a solid 2023 campaign with the Denver Broncos, throwing for 3,070 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions with a 66.4 percent completion rate in 15 starts.
Wilson will get more out of the Steelers pass-catchers as a clear upgrade over Kenny Pickett, whom Pittsburgh traded to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Though Pittsburgh traded Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers, George Pickens could break out with gaudy receiving numbers in his third season.
Van Jefferson may be a solid No. 2 or 3 receiver. The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly believes the Steelers could add an established wideout before Week 1.
If Pittsburgh does not acquire another starting-caliber wide receiver, rookie third-rounder Roman Wilson can contribute this season. Based on the Steelers’ recent track record of hitting on Day 2 receivers, he has a shot to make an immediate impact.
As a passer, Wilson hasn’t had a strong rapport with his tight ends, but as a former tight ends coach, offensive coordinator Arthur Smith should be able to get Pat Freiermuth and perhaps Darnell Washington involved in the aerial attack.
If Wilson struggles under center, the Steelers can move the ball with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren on the ground. As an offensive play-caller, Smith has fielded a top-nine ground attack in four out of five seasons.
In over half their years under Tomlin, the Steelers ranked within the top 10 in scoring defense, finishing sixth last season.
Wilson probably isn’t going to rediscover his Pro Bowl form, but he has good enough support to help get this team over eight wins.
The San Francisco 49ers must look at the upcoming season as Super Bowl or bust. They have won the NFC West title in consecutive years and reached the NFC Championship Game in three straight terms.
Aside from Brock Purdy, who is 24, the 49ers have a veteran-led offense with key players who may need to take on lighter workloads to preserve themselves for the playoffs.
San Francisco needs older veterans like Trent Williams (36), Christian McCaffrey (28) and George Kittle (30) to stay healthy to make a deep playoff run.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan hinted that he could dial back on McCaffrey’s touches to keep him in tip-top shape late in the campaign.
Perhaps Shanahan reconsiders that notion if the 49ers part ways with wideout Brandon Aiyuk, who has requested a trade, per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo. The 49ers placed rookie first-rounder Ricky Pearsall on the non-football injury list, which is another potential ding to their pass-catching group.
San Francisco could push for home-field playoff advantage, but this team may not feel the urgency to win 12-plus games if it comes at the expense of wear and tear on its older players.
You are probably better off staying away from the Seattle Seahawks win total line because they’re one of the league’s biggest wild-card teams.
On one hand, the Seahawks seemingly underachieved last year, but the team still went 9-8 and barely missed the playoffs.
Yet Seattle has undergone significant changes this offseason. It moved former head coach Pete Carroll to the front office and replaced him with Mike Macdonald.
Macdonald has an impressive resume, most recently calling plays for the Baltimore Ravens’ No. 1 scoring defense. He will work with a plethora of quality talent in Seattle.
With Dre’Mont Jones, Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed and rookie first-rounder Byron Murphy II up front and Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen and Julian Love on the back end, Macdonald can turn a bottom-tier defense from the previous campaign into a top-10 unit this year.
However, Macdonald needs Ryan Grubb to get the offense back on track following the unit’s regression between 2022 and 2023.
Grubb hasn’t called plays on the pro level, and quarterback Geno Smith could be on shaky ground under a new coaching staff.
The Seahawks’ offensive direction is a mystery right now. Grubb may experiment with play calls and designs for weeks before the unit has a true identity. Take the under.
Oddsmakers need to put a little more respect on the reigning NFC South champions.
Tampa Bay maintained its offensive core, signing quarterback Baker Mayfield and wide receiver Mike Evans to extensions. Offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs should be next in line for a new deal.
On the other hand, the Buccaneers will go through an adjustment under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who has bounced back and forth between the Kentucky and the Los Angeles Rams coaching staffs over the last four years.
Learning a new system from an inexperienced NFL play-caller, Mayfield may not top his passing numbers from the previous campaign. However, he should be able to make plays with two Pro Bowl receivers, Evans and Chris Godwin, as he figures out a new offense.
As a defensive play-caller, Todd Bowles has fielded a top-eight scoring defense in three of the previous five seasons.
With a decent offense and a defensive unit that’s typically stingy, the Buccaneers should be in the hunt for their fourth consecutive NFC South title.
The Buccaneers play in a weak division, and they will face the Washington Commanders, Denver Broncos and New York Giants. These three teams have seen significant roster turnover this offseason.
The Buccaneers clear 7.5 wins as they battle the Atlanta Falcons for the division crown.
Unless you are willing to give second-year quarterback Will Levis and first-year head coach Brian Callahan the benefit of the doubt, take the under here.
As a rookie, Levis showed flashes, though he did not top the passing numbers (238 yards and four touchdowns) from his impressive apertura against the Atlanta Falcons.
If Levis shows moderate improvement with a wide receiver unit that features Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Boyd, he could enter the discussion among budding young quarterbacks.
However, no one knows if Callahan is the right hire to aid Levis’ growth.
Callahan has not called plays on the pro level, and he has to figure out how to transform the Titans’ offensive identity after losing workhorse running back Derrick Henry in free agency.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears may become a dynamic duo out of the backfield, but the Titans must establish an offensive rhythm with mostly a new set of playmakers.
Tennessee’s offense has the potential to score in flurries, but don’t be surprised if it’s clunky as Callahan fulfills a new responsibility of calling plays.
On the defensive side, Dennard Wilson will also call plays for the first time in his coaching career.
The Titans have too many question marks to ignore; they will fall short of 6.5 wins.
Jayden Daniels garnered importante praise throughout the spring, and bettors should pay close attention.
Remember, Daniels won the 2023 Heisman Trophy, and he’s the most dynamic signal-caller from the 2024 draft class in terms of the ability to turn a dead-end play into a big gain with his legs.
The Washington Commanders had the No. 2 pick in the draft, which allowed them to take Daniels, but this team has a lot for him to work with on offense.
Daniels has an established lead receiver, Terry McLaurin, a recent first-round wideout, Jahan Dotson, and one of the league’s best pass-catching running backs, Austin Ekeler.
Defensively, the Commanders unit could come together a lot quicker than most would expect for a rebuilding squad.
Head coach Dan Quinn fielded a top-seven scoring defense in all three of his years as a play-caller for the Dallas Cowboys. A few players and pass game coordinator-secondary coach Joe Whitt Jr. followed him from Dallas to Washington.
Though Quinn will trust Whitt to call defensive plays, the Commanders have synergy between some of their players and the coaches on that side of the ball.
The Commanders’ biggest area of concern is the offensive line, which may feature three new starters compared to last season. If the unit flops, it could derail their season.
However, Daniels’ ability to tuck and run could offset potential pass protection issues. He ran for 2,019 yards and 21 touchdowns in his last two years at LSU.
College statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.