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Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen isn’t a top-five NFL QB, according to Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill

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The Buffalo Bills have routinely bested the Miami Dolphins since quarterback Josh Allen arrived in Western New York. Allen has owned the South Florida football club similarly to how Tom Brady owned the Bills.

How much so, you ask? In 12 games, with his team going 10-2, Allen has posted a 109.2 passer rating throwing for 3,947 yards, 39 total touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. You can be sure Hill is familiar with Allen’s brand of football at this point.

Or maybe not. Most conversations about where Allen resides within the NFL quarterback hierarchy center around his being considered among the top three active players. But for wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Allen doesn’t even crack his top five. While Hill is admittedly an easy guy to root against for Bills Mafia, is his list fair — and who did make the cut?

  1. Patrick Mahomes
  2. Tua Tagovailoa
  3. Lamar Jackson
  4. Dak Prescott
  5. Baker Mayfield

Come on, man! Certainly, Hill’s going full homer for his current and former quarterbacks — and Mahomes rightly deserves the top spot. That said, let’s crunch some numbers in what’s sure to be a far deeper dive than anyone could have predicted out of the ashes of Tyreek Hill’s live social media session.

Are we set to smoke Tyreek Hill like this up-and-coming young player from Rochester, NY?

Get comfortable as we set out to explore some of the less-discussed/highlighted stats of NFL quarterbacks.

A comprehensive dive into the current NFL QB hierarchy

Tyreek Hill may be exceptionally fast, but is he too quick here to be considered a fair judge? Below, I’ll attempt a deep dive to answer that question through a comprehensive look at today’s elite NFL quarterbacks, including some of those left outside looking up at Hill’s list.

Hill’s One: Patrick Mahomes

Everyone paying attention to professional sports understands the greatness that is Patrick Mahomes. We all get it, okay? He’s QB1 of all QB1s in today’s game. He’s this eras Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, Wayne Gretzky, Willie Mays, and Pelé. His numbers prove his value. Understand that the man has already started 18 playoff games in his young career.

On that note, let’s first take a look at what I believe are six key percentage metrics in this discussion (completion percentage / TD percentage / INT percentage) using both, independently, regular-season and postseason figures (courtesy of the fine folks at Pro Football Reference). How does this all look? Below, Patrick Mahomes’ numbers in six measurements currently show us the following:

Completion percentage

  • Reg-season (96 games/starts): 66.5%
  • Playoffs (18 games): 67.9%

TD percentage

  • Reg-season (96 games/starts): 6.1%
  • Playoffs (18 games): 6.1%

INT percentage

  • Reg-season (96 games/starts): 1.8%
  • Playoffs (18 games): 1.2%

Hill’s Two: Tua Tagovailoa

I’m an admitted Tagovailoa apologist as I believe he’s a far better quarterback than most are willing to admit. He’s a really good dude, too. Sure, he’s best within a system, but that never held people back from claiming Joe Montana’s greatness. The concern with Tagovailoa has been his ability to win in crunch time. Additionally, he has but one playoff game listed on his CB.

Here’s what that looks like for Tagovailoa, though trends are usually established after three instances when here we have but one for his postseason work:

Completion percentage

  • Reg-season (53 games / 51 starts): 66.9%
  • Playoffs (1 game — missed 2022 WC game): 51.3%

TD percentage

  • Reg-season (53 games / 51 starts): 4.9%
  • Playoffs (1 game — missed 2022 WC game): 2.6%

INT percentage

  • Reg-season (53 games / 51 starts): 2.3%
  • Playoffs (1 game — missed 2022 WC game): 2.6%

Hill’s Three: Lamar Jackson

With Lamar Jackson, everyone is quick to put him on a very lofty pedestal, especially now after winning league MVP honors twice. Jackson is another quarterback I stump for, going all the way back to the draft when I hoped he’d land in Buffalo. But his teams struggle to win in the postseason, posting a 2-4 overall playoff record with Jackson — who’s tossed out some less-than-MVP-worthy play. Comparing percentage stats for Jackson between the regular season and postseason reveals a startling drop in three key areas:

Completion percentage

  • Reg-season (86 games / 77 starts): 64.5%
  • Playoffs (6 games): 57.4%

TD percentage

  • Reg-season (86 games / 77 starts): 5.9%
  • Playoffs (6 games): 3.1%

INT percentage

  • Reg-season (86 games / 77 starts): 2.1%
  • Playoffs (6 games): 3.1%

Hill’s Four: Dak Prescott

As for Dak Prescott? He’s a stat machine. Fantasy football aficionados think fondly of his work. Prescott is also a fantastic spokesperson for the NFL, and the kind of throwback hero you’re glad to endorse should your kid(s) aspire to be like him. Similar to Jackson above, Prescott’s teams routinely fail to meet expectations once the playoffs start — saddling Prescott’s resume with a 2-5 tournament record. In comparing Prescott’s regular-season and postseason stat averages, he performs worse in every key percentage metric:

Completion percentage

  • Reg-season (114 games/starts): 67%
  • Playoffs (7 games): 64.5%

TD percentage

  • Reg-season (114 games/starts): 5.2%
  • Playoffs (7 games): 5.1%

INT percentage

  • Reg-season (114 games/starts): 1.9%
  • Playoffs (7 games): 2.5%

Hill’s Five: Baker Mayfield

So what does one do with the Baker Mayfield nugget? The guy has more swagger than the best “Old Spice” commercials. He embarked on a redemptive tour last season, and opened some peoples’ eyes wide while guiding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the playoffs. Is he the fifth-best quarterback in today’s NFL? You might never find another list that places him there. (Mayfield’s own ranking would probably place no lower than two, for what it’s worth.) Honestly, I just don’t really know what to do with this opinion of Hill’s. Mayfield was an afterthought, someone who completely bombed with the Cleveland Browns before sojourns with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams in 2022. His Rams debut was magical, with Mayfield essentially playing sandlot football to magnificent success. Still, the guy’s more famous for his now-retired insurance commercials than he is for any NFL accomplishment. How do Mayfield’s percentage stats measure up? He actually finds improvement in all three areas.

Completion percentage

  • Reg-season (89 games / 86 starts): 61.9%
  • Playoffs (4 games): 62.2%

TD percentage

  • Reg-season (89 games / 86 starts): 4.6%
  • Playoffs (4 games): 6.8%

INT percentage

  • Reg-season (89 games / 86 starts): 2.6%
  • Playoffs (4 games): 2.0%

A trio of NFL QBs ignored by Tyreek Hill

Hill was only asked to name a top five, but plenty would argue a spot for Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen. Let’s continue crunching the data with their numbers in the same categories.

Jalen Hurts

There may be no more divisive an opinion on current NFL quarterbacks than where to place Jalen Hurts among his peers. He’s perhaps one of the finest leaders the league has ever seen, no doubt instilled in him through his father and his service background. Like most of today’s elite QBs, Hurts is a bona fide dual threat at the position. Is he among the best, however? A look at Hurts’ key regular-season and postseason data points adds to the discussion…

Completion percentage

  • Reg-season (62 games / 51 starts): 63.4%
  • Playoffs (5 games): 64.2%

TD percentage

  • Reg-season (62 games / 51 starts): 4.2%
  • Playoffs (5 games): 3.0%

INT percentage

  • Reg-season (62 games / 51 starts): 2.2%
  • Playoffs (5 games): 1.2%

Joe Burrow

Mean Joe Cool, as I’m calling him here — he’s certainly crafted an ego for himself. It serves him well and he’s often mentioned in the same breath as Josh Allen right after Mahomes among the game’s greatest. With many people, at least. Burrow is surgically precise and deadly efficient. However, there are some who see him more as Glass Joe thanks to the number of games he’s missed. Why did Hill leave him off the top five of his list? Let’s see if our key data figures tell us anything:

Completion percentage

  • Reg-season (52 games/starts): 68%
  • Playoffs (7 games): 67.3%

TD percentage

  • Reg-season (52 games/starts): 5.1%
  • Playoffs (7 games): 3.6%

INT percentage

  • Reg-season (52 games/starts): 2.0%
  • Playoffs (7 games): 1.6%

Josh Allen

Certainly, I understand arguments that say (like those QBs mentioned above) Josh Allen’s teams have failed to meet expectations in the playoffs. Honestly, every AFC team other than the Kansas City Chiefs seems stuck in their own version of a Groundhog Day nightmare for the time being. A similar bit of fright for the Dolphins, Allen has numerous wholesome fatherly memes attached to his relationship with Miami.

So what do Allen’s numbers look like in our key percentage figures? Josh Allen’s numbers improve in all three areas when the postseason begins:

Completion percentage

  • Reg-season (94 games / 93 starts): 63.2%
  • Playoffs (10 games): 64.6%

TD percentage

  • Reg-season (94 games / 93 starts): 5.3%
  • Playoffs (10 games): 5.6%

INT percentage

  • Reg-season (94 games / 93 starts): 2.5%
  • Playoffs (10 games): 1.1%

Math as a means to create a QB ranking based on percentages

Next, we’ll take the stats above and rank the eight QBs based on their performance in each category. I’ve assigned a points-value system for each discipline in brackets, where the higher the rank, the better the value first (aka “1”) = [8] (points), last (aka “8”) = [1] (point). Ready?

Regular-season completion percentage

  1. Burrow (68%) [8]
  2. Prescott (67%) – [7]
  3. Tagovailoa (66.9%) – [6]
  4. Mahomes (66.5%) – [5]
  5. Jackson (64.5%) – [4]
  6. Hurts (63.4%) [3]
  7. Allen (63.2%) – [2]
  8. Mayfield (61.9%) – [1]

Playoff completion percentage

  1. Mahomes (67.9%) -[8]
  2. Burrow (67.3%) [7]
  3. Allen (64.6%) -[6]
  4. Prescott (64.5%) -[5]
  5. Hurts (64.2%) [4]
  6. Mayfield (62.2%) -[3]
  7. Jackson (57.4%) -[2]
  8. Tagovailoa (51.3%) -[1]

Regular-season TD percentage

  1. Mahomes (6.1%) -[8]
  2. Jackson (5.9%) -[7]
  3. Allen (5.3%) -[6]
  4. Prescott (5.2%) -[5]
  5. Burrow (5.1%) [4]
  6. Tagovailoa (4.9%) -[3]
  7. Mayfield (4.6%) -[2]
  8. Hurts (4.2%) [1]

Playoff TD percentage

  1. Mayfield (6.8%) -[8]
  2. Mahomes (6.1%) -[7]
  3. Allen (5.6%) -[6]
  4. Prescott (5.1%) -[5]
  5. Burrow (3.6%) [4]
  6. Jackson (3.1%) -[3]
  7. Hurts (3.0%) [2]
  8. Tagovailoa (2.6%) -[1]

Regular-season INT percentage

  1. Mahomes (1.8%) -[8]
  2. Prescott (1.9%) -[7]
  3. Burrow (2.0%) [6]
  4. Jackson (2.1%) -[5]
  5. Hurts (2.2%) [4]
  6. Tagovailoa (2.3%) -[3]
  7. Allen (2.5%) -[2]
  8. Mayfield (2.6%) -[1]

Playoff INT percentage

  1. Allen (1.1%) -[8]
  2. tie: Mahomes/Hurts (1.2 % each) -[7 / 7]
  3. Burrow (1.6%) [6]
  4. Mayfield (2.0%) -[5]
  5. Prescott (2.5%) -[4]
  6. Tagovailoa (2.6%) -[3]
  7. Jackson (3.1%) -[2]

Total points

  1. Mahomes: 5 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 8 + 7 = 43 points
  2. Burrow: 8 + 7 + 4 + 4 + 6 + 6 = 35 points
  3. Prescott: 7 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 7 + 4 = 33 points
  4. Allen: 2 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 2 + 8 = 30 points
  5. Jackson: 4 + 2 + 7 + 3 + 5 + 2 = 23 points
  6. Hurts: 3 + 4 + 1 + 2 + 4 + 7 = 21 points
  7. Mayfield: 1 + 3 + 2 + 8 + 1 + 5 = 20 points
  8. Tagovailoa: 6 + 1 + 3 + 1 + 3 + 3 = 17 points

What can we learn from this math lesson? Yes, stats are often misleading. Why choose the percentage data points instead of passing yards, number of TDs/INTs/lost fumbles, rush yards, etc.?

To me, there percentages provide a more holistic look at quarterback play. It’s admittedly an imperfect formula, and any statistical breakdown is open for debate. At worst, this is a tremendous baseline in the discussion of “best current NFL QB.”

Where any calculation comes up short is the idea that every team doesn’t has the same wealth of weapons, they don’t operate using identical systems, or hardly ever will teams face identical defensive schedules. Again, everything is wonderfully imperfect, similarly to the universe’s preference to thrive off chaos.

As I see it, these numbers represent a quarterback’s performance in the clutch, and their ability or lack thereof to retain a proficient level of play throughout the naturally developing career arc. Professional athletes can have incredible outlier seasons.

Look at quarterbacks Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III, and Tim Tebow; wide receivers Michael Clayton and Josh Gordon; tight end Gary Barnidge; or running backs Ickey Woods, Hershel Walker, Peyton Hills, and C.J. Spiller just to name a few among the many backs of such ilk. Regardless of position, usually a player’s career averages will tell a far more comprehensive story.

Take an additional second to compare Josh Allen’s regular-season and postseason INT percentage data. He improves from seventh to first during crunch time. Similarly, even amid a drop to second overall, Mahomes is the leader during the regular season, lowering his rate in the postseason to land just behind Allen. Mahomes and Allen are also the only two to consistently remain in the top three for TD percentage in both the regular season and playoffs.

Taking into consideration just the total points for each quarterback, Mahomes is well in front of everyone else. That should be news to no one. Interestingly, the trio of Burrow/Prescott/Allen are all nestled closely together in the 30s, and just five points separates “second” from “fourth.” After Allen, there’s a fairly precipitous drop to the low 20s. That’s a place I didn’t expect to find Jackson.

The bad news for Tyreek Hill is that his quarterback is very securely in eighth — which is just in consideration of our data points. Adding other stats doesn’t necessarily change his status in this group, as you’ll soon discover below. That said, I believe Tagovailoa is a talented quarterback who may forever struggle to shed the labels cast on him by some observers. He’s not a generational talent in the mold of Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, and Jackson — though few are. Could he reach the level of someone like Burrow or Prescott? Anything’s possible. Just ask Kurt Warner how he went from bagging groceries to winning Super Bowls.

In fairness to Hill, his list was fielded off a left-field question from a fan. He didn’t analyze data. He trusted his experience and instincts, and provided an on-the-spot answer. Giving things a more thorough examination, the data here would argue that Hill is wrong, and neither Baker Mayfield nor Tua Tagovailoa would make the cut as one of the top-five NFL quarterbacks based just on these numbers.

Should I have considered other names, such as Justin Herbert? His time may still be coming, but to this point he doesn’t seem to rise to the top of any best-quarterback discussion. Before Hill, neither did Mayfield. Greats like Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Russell Wilson are likely staring in the rearview mirror at their best NFL selves. Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love just haven’t shown enough yet for my consideration. We have one fantastic season from C.J. Stroud — but let’s see what he does for an encore first before flirting with his coronation. Kirk Cousins may have proven an interesting case, but that may also further prove stats’ ability to sometimes mislead. Cousins has put up some fantastic numbers in his career, but few would call him clutch when it matters most.

Clutch counts. Speaking of clutch…

Though many of you perhaps expected this to be an argument for placing Josh Allen second only to Patrick Mahomes, I chose to let the data guide me instead of instinct. Had I not, certainly I place Allen above Dak Prescott in third, and likely even ahead of Burrow at two. That’s thanks in large part to Allen’s intangibles, mystifying late-game dual-threat heroics, and leadership qualities.

We’ve taken a very deep dive already to this point, and we understand that Bills Mafia’s favorite QB doesn’t outrank everyone on this list. If we were to look at the bulk of meaningful stats for all eight quarterbacks, does the list re-organize itself? Keep reading…

Just the facts, please… all of them

Okay, okay. I get it. Stats and NFL football go hand in hand. So you’re likely curious to see head-to-head stats for all eight quarterbacks. I couldn’t restrain myself from running the numbers, so you’re in luck.

Yes, Josh Allen is among the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the league, but he’s also second only to Mahomes in total TDs. During the most important point of the season, Allen’s turnover percentage nose-dives, and he currently holds the best playoff TD/INT ratio among his QB brotherhood.

A quick note: In comparing all eight QBs, Stat Head would only allow for my charting of six players at a time. I then charted Mayfield and Tagovailoa separately, and got to work in putting everyone on the same “page.”

Here are links to Stat Head’s original charting effort, (Comparison of top six QBs, plus QBs seven and eight). Below is my effort to make the info more easily digestible for your reading purposes.

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All data, images, and words courtesy of Stat Head and Pro Football Reference

Now, let’s consume the career-long stats for each player, including playoff data. If you’re looking for more raw data, each QB’s hyperlinked name leads to their page at Pro Football Reference.

Patrick Mahomes

(W/L 74-22; 15-3 playoff rec — has played 7 NFL seasons)
(14 comebacks, 16 game-winning drives)

  • Reg-season passing: 2,386-of-3,590 (66.5%) for 28,424 yards, 219 TDs, 63 INTs (103.5 rat)
  • Reg-season rushing: 374 carries for 1,936 yards (131 first downs), 12 TDs, 36 FUM
  • Reg-season receiving: 1 catch (3 targets) for 6 yards
  • Playoff passing: 456-of-672 (67.9%) for 5,135 yards, 41 TDs, 8 INTs (105.8 rat)
  • Playoff rushing: 90 carries for 524 yards (36 first downs), 5 TDs, 11 FUM

Joe Burrow

(W/L 29-22-1; 5-2 playoff rec — has played 4 NFL seasons)
(5 comebacks, 7 game-winning drives)

  • Reg-season passing: 1,288-of-1,895 (68%) for 14,083 yards, 97 TDs, 37 INTs (98.6 rat)
  • Reg-season rushing: 183 carries for 605 yards (65 first downs), 10 TDs, 22 FUM
  • Playoff passing: 169-of-251 (67.3%) for 1,826 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs (93.8 rat)
  • Playoff rushing: 26 carries for 101 yards (12 first downs), 1 TD

Dak Prescott

(W/L 73-41; 2-5 playoff rec — has played 8 NFL seasons)
(14 comebacks, 22 game-winning drives)

  • Reg-season passing: 2,595-of-3,873 (67%) for 29,459 yards, 202 TDs, 74 INTs (99.0 rat)
  • Reg-season rushing: 407 carries for 1,884 yards (149 first downs), 28 TDs, 56 FUM
  • Reg-season receiving: 1 catch (2 targets) for 11 yards, 1 TD
  • Playoff passing: 178-of-276 (64.5%) for 1,962 yards, 14 TDs, 7 INTs (91.8 rat)
  • Playoff rushing: 31 carries for 163 yards (17 first downs), 4 TDs, 1 FUM

Josh Allen

(W/L 63-30; 5-5 playoff rec — has played 6 NFL seasons)
(13 comebacks, 19 game-winning drives)

  • Reg-season passing: 1,989-of-3,145 (63.2%) for 22,703 yards, 167 TDs, 78 INTs (92.2 rat)
  • Reg-season rushing: 657 carries for 3,611 yards (287 first downs), 53 TDs, 59 FUM
  • Reg-season receiving: 1 catch (2 targets) for 12 yards, 1 TD
  • Playoff passing: 244-of-378 (64.6%) for 2,723 yards, 21 TDs, 4 INTs (100.0 rat)
  • Playoff rushing: 83 carries for 563 yards (37 first downs), 5 TDs, 9 FUM
  • Playoff receiving: 1 catch (1 target) for 16 yards, 1 TD

Lamar Jackson

(W/L 58-19; 2-4 playoff rec — has played 6 NFL seasons)
(8 comebacks, 10 game-winning drives)

  • Reg-season passing: 1,362-of-2,112 (64.5%) for 15,887 yards, 125 TDs, 45 INTs (98.0 rat)
  • Reg-season rushing: 875 carries for 5,258 yards (315 first downs), 29 TDs, 53 FUM
  • Reg-season receiving: 0 catches (2 targets)
  • Playoff passing: 112-of-195 (57.4%) for 1,324 yards, 6 TDs, 6 INTs (75.7 rat)
  • Playoff rushing: 73 carries for 521 yards (29 first downs), 3 TDs, 6 FUM
  • Playoff receiving: 1 catch (1 target) for 13 yards

Jalen Hurts

(W/L 34-17; 2-3 playoff rec — has played 4 NFL seasons)
(6 comebacks, 8 game-winning drives)

  • Reg-season passing: 1,000-of-1,578 (63.4%) for 11,764 yards, 67 TDs, 34 INTs (91.1 rat)
  • Reg-season rushing: 524 carries for 2,503 yards (216 first downs), 41 TDs, 36 FUM
  • Reg-season receiving: 1 catch (2 targets) for 3 yards
  • Playoff passing: 106-of-165 (64.2%) for 1,087 yards, 5 TDs, 2 INTs (88.1 rat)
  • Playoff rushing: 44 carries for 187 yards (17 first downs), 5 TDs, 3 FUM

Baker Mayfield

(W/L 40-46; 2-2 playoff rec — has played 6 NFL seasons)
(8 comebacks, 10 game-winning drives)

  • Reg-season passing: 1,750-of-2,825 (61.9%) for 20,332 yards, 130 TDs, 74 INTs (88.1 rat)
  • Reg-season rushing: 251 carries for 823 yards (76 first downs), 7 TDs, 44 FUM
  • Reg-season receiving: 1 catch (2 targets) for 17 yards
  • Playoff passing: 92-of-148 (62.2%) for 1,153 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INTs (100.4 rating)
  • Playoff rushing: 12 carries for 45 yards (6 first downs)
  • Playoff receiving: 1 catch (1 target) for -8 yards

Tua Tagovailoa

(W/L-32-19; 0-1 playoff rec — has played 4 NFL seasons)
(6 comebacks, 8 game-winning drives)

  • Reg-season passing: 1,096-of-1,638 (66.9%) for 12,639 yards, 81 TDs, 37 INTs (97.1 rating)
  • Reg-season rushing: 136 carries for 381 yards (35 first downs), 6 TDs, 29 FUM
  • Playoff passing: 20-of-39 (51.3%) for 199 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (63.9 rating)
  • Playoff rushing: 3 carries for 25 yards (2 first downs)

What do stats tell us?

We’re a Buffalo Bills site. Because of that, it’s fair to say we look through far more biased lenses about Josh Allen than someone without a team allegiance. That, however, doesn’t exclude Allen from this conversation. Tyreek Hill got this one wrong. It’s fair to wonder if he’d answer the same asked a second time.

What stands out most about the overall stats? Josh Allen only leads in one category from the chart above, which is rushing touchdowns. Joe Burrow only leads in one category above — completion percentage. In looking at the stats, the gap Allen has over Burrow would appear quite a bit larger than where most discussions land. Also consider that Allen does have more years in the league, plus Burrow and the Bengals continue to get the best of Allen and the Bills.

Is Allen really only the fourth-best quarterback in the NFL? Not for my money. He has a bigger body of work and, as such, he’s been exposed to more negative play opportunities. Yet for every negative outcome from Allen, he rebounds with a far more incredible game-changing play.

There are those who believe you can’t rate turnovers and their impact. I disagree. You can count on one hand the amount of games when Josh Allen negatively affected the Bills’ chances to win (home vs. Patriots in 2019 stands out most for me). Instead, considering the when and where of turnovers is what I believe to be more important than just the total number.

How many times have we seen Allen arm punt as time expired in the first half, only to have it end with an interception? Or consider the amount of fumbles levied on him as he flicked the ball to a teammate out of harm’s way, where the ball was successfully (eventually) retained.

Even looking at the 2023 season opener in New Jersey: Allen’s three interceptions came before the final outcome hung in the balance. It’s true that Allen’s turnovers kept the Jets in the game when they should have been reeling from the loss of Rodgers. Many forget that the Jets only claimed the lead once in that game thanks to a late field goal — which Tyler Bass would respond to in kind to tie the score again with two seconds left in regulation.

Plenty will find fault in the above. But the main point is that even in Allen’s worst moments, the team is usually still well-positioned to win — and much of the reason is due to all the other plays he makes.

What we always discover is that stats are only part of the formula.

A final word

We’re about to close in on 4,000 words, and I’ve perhaps spent too much time piling on the adulation for Patrick Mahomes, perhaps the argument is no more clear than it was at the outset. I could have simply posted Hill’s video and ranted for a few hundred words about why I believe he’s completely off the mark.

It wasn’t just Josh Allen who I felt Hill ignored, and it’s always best to work the numbers when considering the best of the best in the NFL. So I dove in — and deep. Sure, history wasn’t re-written above, but I believe we’ve provided a far more compelling look at what makes today’s best NFL quarterbacks great.

A counterpoint to all of this: Sometimes the eye test is all that’s needed. News flash — Mahomes passes that, too. The case can be made for most of the guys on my list. Allen, Burrow, Jackson, Prescott, and Hurts at least. With Tagovailoa and Mayfield, their games usually leave you wanting to see more of the plays that may lies outside of their capabilities.

Where the seven runners-up here tend to fall short is in claiming wins against Mahomes on the biggest stage. Burrow and the Bengals did get one on Mahomes, spoils that landed Cincinnati a Super Bowl berth.

Mahomes also lost a Super Bowl to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. You remember that Brady well. Mahomes is not invincible, but neither was Tom Brady. Players like them just “feel” that way, and for some teams and certain personalities, invincible is far-too-familiar a term used to describe players like Mahomes or Brady.

As for that stage, which so often features Mahomes? The platform and trophies that often follow the performance stick out like little else to those with opinions about the NFL’s best quarterback. With some, it’s hardware above all else.

Among our eight-ranked quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes is the only player to have won the Super Bowl. Is winning the most important factor in this discussion, however? That unfairly followed Dan Marino his entire career, as did his teams’ inability to best the Bills during the playoffs in all but his last at-bat against them.

Tallying up the list of currently active Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks doesn’t take much time. There’s Mahomes, then Matt Stafford, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Flacco. More than one name among that group wasn’t even considered their era’s best quarterback before or after they won the Super Bowl. A quarterback doesn’t have to be the best at their position to win it all, and often enough the best to do it fail to win that coveted ring.

These debates and outcomes often rely heavily on the very subjective idea of: “Who would you take?” Is any Bills fan taking Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott over Josh Allen? The conversation becomes more interesting when they’re asked to choose between Allen and Mahomes.

Remember, a quarterback’s legacy is often tied to their immediate situation. Are Allen and Mahomes observably different players for other teams? Coaching/front offices, rosters, opportunities, and locales are never identical.

Buffalo Bills fans waited over two decades and almost as many quarterback projects for the arrival of Jim Kelly’s proper successor. Allen doesn’t necessarily need to be the best to ever play quarterback, but he will need to be on the winning side of playoff games that feature Patrick Mahomes, and even Joe Burrow. Plenty are watching, waiting, and wondering if it will happen.

I’ve said of late in describing Josh Allen and his brand of football that he’s a fire-breathing unicorn. Derided as a prospect entering the NFL, Allen’s raw talent laid the groundwork for his unlikely ascendance. He’s the type of player who represents almost everything Bills Mafia ever dreamt possible for Buffalo.

When all’s said and done, regardless of where Josh Allen ends up ranked among the NFL’s best, he will forever rise to the top with professional sports’ greatest fan base.