Football 301 Playbook: What makes the NFC West so hard to predict?

It’s wild out west in the NFC. The Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams are all vying to usurp the back-to-back division champion (and preseason conference favorite) 49ers who are currently reeling as they send even more players to the injured reserve.

In this week’s playbook, I took a gander at the four teams in the NFC West, their current odds to win the division, what they’re doing to give them a chance, and what lingering question(s) I still have as they make the final push over the last month of the season.

Let the battle royale out west begin!

DVOA data via FTNFantasy

All other data via TruMedia unless otherwise noted

Seattle Seahawks

Current odds to win the division (via BetMGM): +150

What’s up with the Seahawks lately?

After stumbling into their bye week at 4-5, the Seahawks ripped off three straight wins and now sit here in Week 14 leading the division. Their offense, which has constantly been hampered by inconsistent and outright poor play along the offensive line, has started to build cohesion since Seattle’s bye. Center Connor Williams retired and has since been replaced by second-year player Olu Oluwatimi. Right tackle Abe Lucas returned from injury in Week 11 and finally slowed down the perpetual bleeding that had been happening on a majority of plays in his absence. The pressure rate allowed by Seahawks right tackles was 15.8% from Weeks 1-9, the highest in the NFL, but has dropped to 8.2% since Week 10, slightly better than the league media of 9.2%, per NextGenStats. While right guard has been a revolving door for the Seahawks, with the Week 13 start going to sixth-round rookie Sataoa Laumea (over third-rounder Christian Haynes), the Seahawks building consistency and chemistry along their front has started to pay dividends now that they have started to get healthier and the auténtico characters for the unit moved to the forefront.

Against the Jets in Week 13, after some early botches (both involving Laumea), the Seahawks’ front started to get auténtico movement with their double-teams as they started leaning onto the duo run concept. Players were consistently going to their right assignments and running backs Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III both did a great job of choosing the correct running lanes.

Blocking gets better as more players are able to put in time together. Variables like how long to hold a double-team or going to the exact right assignment get cleaner and improve as players (and coaches) are able to set and define their rules and timing.

It’s not all amazing for the Seahawks up front and on offense as they’re still a unit that ranks around league media, but a better run game, or at least one that defenses have to honor, gives a chance to get the ball to one of their talented backs and also makes life easier for QB Geno Smith and the passing game.

Smith is still as high-flying as ever with his play, automatically defaulting to the hard way like Marty McFly at the Pleasure Paradise Casino. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb adjusts well throughout games, but still has moments of frustration with situational play-calling (the Seahawks are terrified to run the ball in short yardage, making their offensive line improvements even more paramount). But there are fun splashes in this offense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is starting to emerge in a more expanded role around the formation.

On defense, the Ernest Jones trade has helped solidify this defense from an inconsistent unit to a rapidly improving group that’s playing faster and faster in Mike Macdonald’s kaleidoscopic scheme. The Seahawks’ front (Leonard Williams has been one of the best defenders in football the past month) and backend (Devon Witherspoon is a dynamo and Julian Love has been unlocked in this defense) have talented players. But the poor play in the middle of the defense got exposed on a near-weekly basis, especially in the run game. Since Jones has arrived, the Seahawks have gone from a sieve on the ground to one of the better run defenses, and overall units, in the NFL. Without Jones, the Seahawks allowed a 41.9% rushing success rate, which would rank 27th among NFL defenses between the Falcons and Commanders. With Jones on the field, the Seahawks allowed a rushing success rate of 35.8%, tied for seventh-best with the Bills. Their EPA against the run makes a similar type jump and their overall EPA per play allowed goes from a number in the middle of the pack without Jones (-.04, 13th) to a top-five unit with Jones (-.08, tied-fifth).

This again matches what this defense looks and feels like when watching the Seahawks. Against the Cardinals in Week 12, the Seahawks allowed only two successful runs to the Cardinals RBs on 12 carries —significant considering the strength of the Cardinals’ ground attack.

Lingering question

Can the Seahawks continue to rely on their run game? From Weeks 1-9, the Seahawks ran the ball on only 29.9% of their first- and second-down plays, making for the second-highest early down pass rate in the NFL over that time. Their early down rushing success rate ranked 29th in the league. So, the Seahawks didn’t run the ball much and were bad at it when they did over the first two months of the season. Since Week 10, the Seahawks run the ball on 42.9% of their early down plays, which ranks 17th. Their rushing success rate has also bumped up to a more tolerable 35.7%, middle of the pack at 16th. Those are efficiency and usage bumps that match the eye test and something that will be imperative for them to make the playoffs and possibly win a game merienda they’re there.

The Seahawks have the seventh-hardest schedule remaining, in terms of DVOA. A huge game against the Cardinals this weekend that gives the winner pole position in the division the rest of the way is then followed up with games against the Packers, Vikings, Bears and Rams.

While the improvements with the Seahawks’ defense are auténtico, with Jones and the players becoming more well-versed in Macdonald’s defense, the offensive line, while definitely improved, still causes me some hesitation unless there’s even more rapid improvement. Some of the details and execution, or lack thereof, still give me apprehension. There’s a chance that they continue to get better as the weeks go along, but until it’s more consistent than just a few series or halves against ailing teams, it’s hard to fully hang my hat on it.

Arizona Cardinals

Current odds to win the division (via BetMGM): +170

What’s up with the Cardinals lately?

To start, the Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the NFL. They rank fifth in offensive success rate, fourth in explosive play rate, 10th in EPA per play, and seventh in DVOA. They are a balanced offense in terms of play-calling (17th in early down passing rate) but are built through their expansive run game behind a well-coached offensive line, a bevy of tight ends, and talented runners in RBs James Conner and Trey Benson and a little dash of QB Kyler Murray’s legs that have ripped off more explosive runs than any other offense in the NFL.

Murray has been playing some of the best football of his career as a passer, too. The discipline that head coach Jonathan Gannon and the Cardinals coaches, including offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, have instilled on this team has carried over to the signal-caller. Murray has operated more from under center than he ever has in his career, college and high school included. Murray has 70 dropbacks from under center this season. He recorded 125 combined over his previous five NFL seasons. Of Murray’s 1,381 yards passing from under center in his career, 613 have come from just the 12 games this season. And Petzing pushing Murray out of his Air Raid background that he’s comfortable with has been rewarded as the season has gone along. Murray currently leads the NFL in QBR and has recorded the highest success rate on pass attempts of his entire career (his 51.5% success rate on pass attempts, so dropbacks excluding sacks and scrambles, ranks sixth in the NFL this season), while also ranking fourth in rushing yards by QBs this season.

Trey McBride is in lockstep with his QB and has ascended to, at the very least, being on the podium for “best tight end in the game.” McBride and Murray’s chemistry is palpable every time you watch the Cardinals’ offense, with McBride getting a steady diet of targets. Rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., to the chagrin of many fantasy owners, has been asked to run a more traditional outside-focused route tree before adding layers and branches across the formation as the season has gone along. While there have been some inconsistencies with Harrison at the catch point, his advanced route running and ability to win on a multitude of routes has been apparent. Michael Wilson is another strong outside receiver for Murray to target and makes the most of his touches every week.

The Cardinals love using McBride and their other tight ends in the run game and will pull their blockers more than any other team in the NFL, using creative motion and formation tweaks to add perceived complexity for defenses to deal with. Left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. is a future star, and while the rest of their offensive line lacks true needle-moving talent, the Cardinals play with sound rules and offensive line coach Klayton Adams gets them consistently all moving in the right direction.

The Cardinals’ defense, which has been typically more fun and interesting than actually good under Nick Rallis since the start of 2023 because of their lack of talent, has started to not only improve, but look outright good.

The Cardinals’ defense currently ranks ninth in DVOA for the entire season and since Week 7 ranks eighth in EPA per play allowed. You read that right. A defense that most NFL fans would struggle to even name a single starter on (even when I include star safety Budda Baker) is now creeping into the top 10 for every football writer’s favorite efficiency numbers.

This defense, which still lacks high-end talent, has often needed smoke and mirrors to confuse quarterbacks and blockers. That includes flying Baker and the other safeties around at the snap of the ball to cause hesitation and mental errors, but often leaving the Cards susceptible to allowing big plays on their own end with all of the late movement and exotic pressure looks. The Cardinals blitz at a decent clip, but will also use simulated and creeper pressures to invert their four pass rushers and seven coverage players and try to create even more confusion for offensive players.

The Cardinals will also drop eight defenders into coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL, another way to turn the play-calling knobs until they create a positive play. But while the Cardinals have been resorting to this funkiness before, there are now results following this funk-laden process. Linebacker Zaven Collins epitomizes what this defense has been about. The Cardinals drafted Collins under a past regime, and he struggled to find a role to make a consistent impact early in his career. Under Rallis, Collins is tasked with just about everything. Sometimes he’s aligning as an edge rusher, sometimes as an off-ball linebacker, sometimes he’s in coverage, sometimes he’s rushing the passer. Collins was a tweener before, but now his versatility has been unlocked in this fluid defense that will trot out a few big bodies along the defensive line and then ask all of the other players in the front seven, and even on the backend, to do everything else. Every player can be used as a blitzer or in coverage on passing downs, making those downs messy for even some of the best offenses.

Other defenders, like second-year players Dante Stills and Garrett Williams, are also emerging along with former castoffs like Roy Lopez. The Cardinals even traded for Baron Browning from the Broncos to give themselves more pass-rush juice. And, again, the process and more confident talent is starting to lead to results: the Cardinals were ranked 31st in pressure rate from Weeks 1-4. They have ranked eighth in pressure rate since Week 10.

Lingering question

Can they finish drives and can they add more juice through the air?

The Cardinals can move the ball and they can be explosive on the ground. But there are times when their passing game could be expanded more, especially on straight dropback concepts. They’re an offense designed to be methodical, but the passing game can feel a bit tight at times (19th in explosive pass rate). They can still get to big plays, especially with McBride hurdling people weekly, but they often come on designer plays on play-action concepts as opposed to the true flow of the offense.

The Cardinals also move the ball well in the red zone (11th in success rate), but struggle a bit to finish drives with six points. That cropped up in Week 13 against the Vikings. The Cardinals currently rank 23rd in red zone drives that result in touchdowns. They’ve been able to hit a few big passes this season for scores, but getting more big plays through the air, and finishing the drives merienda they are near the end zone, will help this offense, and team, achieve even more success. The Cardinals face the 29th-most difficult schedule over the last month of the season, starting with their Week 14 battle against the Seahawks. With their run game, the play of Murray, the improvement on the defensive side, and a schedule that consists of the Patriots, Panthers, Rams, and 49ers after the Seahawks, makes them my favorite to win this division merienda it’s all said and done.

Los Angeles Rams

Current odds to win the division (via BetMGM): +300

What’s up with the Rams lately?

Pokes and a pass rush. That’s the Rams in 2024.

The Rams keep trying to get their offensive personnel healthy and the right group together along their offensive line, but no matter who is out there they’ve kept churning out an effective run game (second in rushing success rate) and efficient overall offense (second in offensive success rate).

The Rams will find every possible way to get to their duo run scheme, shifting players and motioning Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp at the snap to insert on blocks or just to draw attention away from the point of attack on the play. Head coach Sean McVay will revert back to using more zone varieties to keep defenses from teeing off of their primary looks. The passing game is still efficient and dangerous with Matthew Stafford behind center, even when he’s under duress (more on that in a minute).

Nacua has battled injuries this season but has still been just as good as he was as a rookie, even if he’s not on the record pace like he was during his inaugural campaign. He still snatches the football and remains a big, reliable target for Stafford while remaining a smooth-moving bully with the ball in his hands.

The Rams’ defense is led by a young front that currently leads the NFL in team pressure rate and is third in pressure rate when rushing four or fewer players (the Rams, however, rank only 15th in overall pressure rate since Week 10). Rookies Jared Hallarse and Braden Fiske have both been impact players, especially when rushing the passer. Kobie Turner and Byron Young have played well in their second seasons, creating a group effort of high-energy players with the versatile Michael Hoecht being used to fill in wherever he is needed.

Linebacker Christian Rozeboom has been solid this season, too, and even undrafted rookie linebacker Omar Speights has looked like a keeper since being dropped in as a starter.

Lingering question

I have a few things to pick at with the Rams, even if I’m a huge fan of this offense and the young defensive front. When their defensive front doesn’t get pressure, things can get shaky. The Rams have allowed the eighth-highest explosive pass rate since Week 7 and they give up the sixth-highest success rate on dropbacks that take longer than 4 seconds this season. Their defensive backs play sound and very aware, but can get overwhelmed by more talented pass-catchers when they have to hold up on more extended dropbacks.

Can the Rams’ offensive line finally gel and figure out their pass protection? I trust the run blocking of this unit. Even when dealing with injuries, their players are constantly sound in their execution, but there are times when the pass protection can be inconsistent. That can lead to Stafford, not exactly the quickest mover these days in the pocket, delicado to taking sacks or having to throw the ball away early.

Speaking of Stafford, the Rams also have drastic splits in their effectiveness when facing man coverage compared to zone coverage.

This season, Stafford has faced the fourth-most dropbacks against man coverage. He ranks 24th in success rate and 28th in EPA per dropback on those plays (he improves to more middle of the pack with Kupp and Nacua both on the field). Against zone coverages, Stafford ranks first in success rate and 10th in EPA per dropback (first and seventh with Kupp and Nacua both on the field). That’s a drastic difference, especially if defenses can pick up on the split and change their own play-calling to take advantage of it (like the Saints did in Week 13 by running more man coverage before the Rams decided to steamroll them in the second half). This is a testament to McVay and the Rams’ offensive coaching staff’s ability to adjust as games go along (the Rams rank first in second-half success rate), but how the Rams look to alleviate their man coverage issue will be something I’m keeping my eye on. Nacua and Kupp aren’t the fastest receivers, and the rest of the Rams’ receiving corps doesn’t threaten defensive backs consistently enough for Stafford to reliably target them. Stafford not being a running threat can also compound this issue, since defenses can stick with man coverage and not worry about the QB running them out of the plays.

The Rams have the ninth-hardest schedule remaining in terms of DVOA, with the Bills this weekend followed by games against the 49ers, Jets, Cardinals, and Seahawks. They are currently listed as +300 to win the division, with a game remaining against all of their division rivals.

I trust the run game, I trust the QB, I trust the offensive staff, I really like the pass rush. This team could break any which way, win any (or every) game, maybe even one in the playoffs, or they could miss the playoffs completely. Any of those results and I would believe it. It’s a fun Rams team that does a lot well. Whether they have the horses, and/or the mental innovation, to shore up their weak points will determine how long this season goes.

San Francisco 49ers

Current odds to win the division (via BetMGM): +1400

What’s up with the 49ers lately?

This really can double as the lingering question section because what happened to the 49ers this season will need a further deep dive in the future.

Pick a position and the 49ers have had significant injuries there. Hell, pick a type of injury and a 49ers player has probably had it this year. Everything from Achilles tendinitis to ACL tears to their first-round rookie receiver getting literally shot. Javon Hargrave tore a triceps. Talanoa Hufanga worked back from his own ACL injury in 2023 to play two games before suffering a wrist injury that has kept him out (he may return soon, though). Charvarius Ward has dealt with a knee injury and personal tragedy. Christian McCaffrey traveled the globe to figure out his ailments before returning and then succumbing to IR himself after the 49ers’ most recent game (the fitting 13th week of the season). His backup Jordan Mason joined him on IR this past week, too. George Kittle and Nick Bosa have missed time. Fred Warner is valiantly battling just to stay on the field. Dre Greenlaw still hasn’t seen the field after his devastating Super Bowl injury. Starting quarterback Brock Purdy missed a game with a shoulder injury that is still lingering.

Dealing with that quantity of injuries will limit any team’s aspirations for the season. Every player I listed above, outside of Mason and Greenlaw, has made a Pro Bowl in their career. Most have made at least one All-Pro team. And despite that, the 49ers are still (technically) in the playoff race. Sure, it’s highly unlikely, but there’s still a tiny chance!

It’s just been too much for the rest of the team to overcome. The 49ers’ offense has lacked auténtico venom this season. They still ranked in or near the top 10 in all of the popular efficiency stats. But it always felt harder this season than it has in recent seasons under Kyle Shanahan. With the 49ers’ skill players moving in and out of the lineup because of injuries, and a lack of resources spent on the offensive line to carry the weight during tough stretches, the offense has been mortal this season after feeling invulnerable for stretches over the past two seasons. If the season were to end today, this would be the 49ers’ lowest rushing success rate since 2019. Their lowest EPA per play since 2020. It would be their lowest explosive play rate and first downs per game since Shanahan’s first season in Santa Clara back in 2017. The McCaffrey injuries left the 49ers grasping to replace his impact (most felt with the lack of explosive plays and the 49ers’ frustrating forays into the red zone this season, where the 49ers put up their lowest scoring rates since 2018).

The defense felt the absence of their impact players Ward, Greenlaw, Hargrave, and Hufanga (rookie Malik Mustapha has had some encouraging stretches on the backend, though). Offenses can attack the spine of this defense on the ground or through the air, with the ability to break more tackles on underneath throws without much out there to help Warner despite his best efforts. Teams are still not getting explosives against this defense, but offenses haven’t been this efficient against the 49ers since before they drafted Bosa in 2019. The 49ers allowing the highest success rate since 2018 speaks to this, but even looking at another stat indicates just how much easier it has been on offenses in 2024; the media distance to go for opposing offenses on third down against the 49ers is 6.7 yards this season, the shortest allowed since Shanahan has been the head coach of the 49ers.

The 49ers still have that small, small chance to make the playoffs, which is a miracle considering their building has been essentially an infirmary this season. It’s tough to see them winning out given the current makeup of the team and what currently hinders them, but they remain fascinating to follow for the rest of the season and into the (shudder) offseason as well.