We had the wildest week of the season on Sunday. There were 12 defenses that scored at least 10 fantasy points, and five defenses scored at least 15. The Vikings put up a whopping 30 points against the Bengals, and even with Jake Browning at quarterback, it was a surprise to see the Bengals look so inept. The Panthers shocked people with 22 fantasy points, while the Raiders put up -1 against Marcus Mariota, and the Falcons, who had looked great early on, scored just three fantasy points against the Panthers.
It’s still early in the season, and we’re not finta yet at a point where stats and performance have begun to stabilize, but we’re getting there, which is why I’ve added my BOD rankings to the article this week. I still think it’s too early to trust them too much, but I wanted to include them for reference. We’re also getting some big-time injuries, like those to CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, and James Conner, but it’s harder to adjust rankings for those injuries this early in the season when we’re still evaluating the true talent of these teams, both offensively and defensively. Still, we’ll do our best to bake those into these rankings.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or corriente defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are.
2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 3: 4-6
SEASON-LONG: 14-16
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factótum into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or corriente defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.
To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small fracción point, hence the heavy multiplication):
((PFF PASS RUSH PRODUCTIVITY RATE x 2) + (TACKLES FOR A LOSS OR NO GAIN) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.5) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE x 2))
I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points allowed per game over the last eight weeks because fantasy points is the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factótum in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
The Vikings are far and away the top defense in my BOD rankings, which is not surprising after they put up 30 fantasy points against the Bengals on Sunday. Even though we know we have the caveat of a small sample size, the Vikings were also a really strong defense for us last season, so I’m inclined to have faith in Brian Flores and his unit. They now get a Steelers offense that looked better against the Patriots, but still has not shown itself to be a truly dynamic offense. The Vikings rank 1st in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, 1st in EPA allowed per play, 4th in turnover rate, 6th in opponent’s scoring rate, 8th in completion rate allowed, and 9th in tackles of a loss or no gain. We’ve just gotta fire them up with some confidence here.
The Texans’ offense is a mess, but their defense remains a really strong unit. Through three weeks, they rank 1st in the NFL in opponents’ scoring rate, 10th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, and 10th in completion rate allowed. They’re now going up against a Titans offense that can’t seem to get out of its own way. Cam Ward has taken 15 sacks in three games, which is partially a knock on how he still needs to adjust to the NFL game, but also a knock on his offensive line. The Titans are scoring some points, and they have some playmakers, but I think the Texans will be in Ward’s face all day and cause a few turnovers.
I can’t believe the Packers lost that game to the Browns, but it wasn’t because of their defense. So far this season, the Packers rank 3rd in EPA allowed per play, 5th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 7th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate. They’ll look to rebound against a Dallas offense that will be without CeeDee Lamb. That means the Cowboys’ playmakers are basically George Pickens, Javonte Williams, and Jake Ferguson. That doesn’t worry me in the slightest. The Cowboys are 4th-worst in the league in turnover rate right now, so let’s bank on the Packers to keep that going.
I wanted to rank the Bills lower here, but I’m a cynical Bills fan, so I’m trying to remind myself that this is a really good spot for them. They rank 5th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate and 5th in completion rate allowed, and could have one or both of Matt Milano and Ed Oliver back for this one. They also seem to be in a smash spot at home against a Saints team that should be chasing points throughout this game and needing to throw ot catch up. That should cover up the Bills’ main defensive weakness, which is their run defense. That being said, a lot of the damage Seattle did to New Orleans last week was on special teams, and the Bills haven’t shown that kind of dynamic upside on special teams yet, so this may not be as ripe a spot for a huge game as it seems after this past Sunday.
The Steelers’ defense rebounded in a big way on Sunday, but they were also facing a pretty corriente Patriots offense. On the season, Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in turnover rate and 8th in tackles of a loss or no gain, and has started to plug the leaks that led to some huge plays for the Jets in Week 1. I’m still going to trust the past seasons of success for the Steelers here and think Carson Wentz is going to be tested a lot more this week than he was last week. The Vikings will still be without Aaron Jones, but they will have Jordan Addison back from suspension this week. The key here will be the health of the offensive line. The Vikings were down two starters on the line on Sunday, and that’s going to be an issue against T.J. Watt and company if it happens again. Stay tuned to injury reports here because it could impact the ranking.
I had the Broncos as the top-ranked defense in fantasy coming into the season, but they have averaged a fairly media 7.7 fantasy points per game through the first three weeks. Still, the Broncos rank 2nd in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, 4th in completion rate allowed, and 5th in EPA allowed per play, so they remain a strong defense. The Bengals have talent on their offense, so part of me feels uncomfortable about this ranking, but Jake Browning looked terrible on Sunday, and Chase Brown can’t buy any running room. Maybe this Bengals offense is broken.
I know people may be surprised to see the Seahawks still ranked this high, given that the Cardinals aren’t a bad matchup, but the Seahawks rank 3rd in opponents’ scoring rate and 6th in turnover rate so far this season. The Cardinals haven’t been a good offense, but they don’t give up many sacks and don’t turn the ball over, so this isn’t an ideal matchup. Still, they will now be playing on a short week without James Conner, who is out for the year. I know Trey Benson is a good back, but it’s hard to turn the keys to an offense over to a new person in three days. I expect the Cardinals’ offense to look fractured here.
I had the Jaguars as a top 10 play last week, even though their consensus rank was 21st, and they delivered for us. On the season, the Jaguars have been a solid defense, ranking 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 2nd in opponents’ scoring rate, 2nd in EPA allowed per play, and 6th in completion rate allowed. Even though the defense hasn’t delivered in previous years, they have poured resources into it, so maybe this team is actually starting to click a bit on that side of the ball. They also get a solid matchup against a 49ers team that we know will be without George Kittle and might be without Jauan Jennings again. I do expect Brock Purdy to play, but this is a situation to keep an eye on.
The Chargers’ defense has been fairly media so far this season and will be without Khalil Mack, who is on the IR. They do rank 3rd in completion rate allowed and 10th in EPA allowed per play, so there are some things they’re doing well; however, the reason I have them this high is the Giants. Even with Andrew Thomas back last week, the Giants’ offense still looked terrible, and Kansas City scored 12 fantasy points against them. I think this Chargers defense is equally as talented, if not better than Kansas City, and I don’t trust this Giants offense to look competent against any non-Cowboys defense.
The Eagles’ defense has not been great this season, but, much like the Lions, it has a lot to do with facing the Cowboys (without Jalen Carter), the Chiefs, and Rams. Those are not really offenses we want to target. The Bucs are also normally not an offense we want to target, but they were down three starting offensive linemen last week, and it was a sloppy showing against the Jets. Baker Mayfield was under pressure all game, and the Bucs offense was called for 14 penalties. Now they face the very actual possibility of playing without Mike Evans, who is battling a hamstring injury, and Chris Godwin, who is still coming back from major leg surgery, and I think this could be a good spot for the Eagles defense.
This has not been a great start to the season for the Falcons’ offense. Michael Penix Jr. has looked like more of a checkdown merchant this season than we saw last year. Atlanta has the 5th-lowest scoring rate of any offense so far and has the 9th-highest turnover rate. That’s not an ideal combination. The Commanders rank 3rd in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, and 7th in opponents’ scoring rate, and while the Falcons don’t give up many sacks, this Commanders defense should keep the scoring in check and put up a solid fantasy day.
I can’t believe I have the Panthers as a fringe top ten defense, but here we are. So far, Carolina ranks 5th in turnover rate, 7th in completion rate allowed, and 9th in opponent’s scoring rate, which has allowed them to media nine fantasy points per game so far. We know this is a small sample size, and I’d be less inclined to buy it if they weren’t paying the Patriots, who have allowed the second-most sacks in the league and have the 3rd-highest turnover rate. Drake Maye is a good quarterback, but he can lean into the chaos too much, and his offensive line isn’t good, so I can see using the Panthers in this one.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots rank 3rd in tackles of a loss or no gain and have averaged 7.3 fantasy points per game. I still don’t believe in this Panthers offense. They have the 5th-highest turnover rate in the league and looked pretty inept until last week against the Falcons. They don’t give up many sacks, but they did place two offensive linemen on the IR before Sunday’s game. It didn’t hurt them against the Falcons, but perhaps it will come back to bite them this week.
I don’t love this matchup for the Colts, but they’ve been a strong defense through three weeks and rank 3rd in turnover rate, 9th in EPA allowed per play, and 10th in opponent’s scoring rate while scoring 9.7 fantasy points over the first three weeks. Matthew Stafford is a bit immobile in the pocket these days, so I think the Colts can get some pressure on him, and they have been a ballhawking defense to start this season, which could lead to a turnover or two. At the end of the day, this feels like more of a floor play than a ceiling one.
The 49ers rank 1st in tackles of a loss or no gain, 4th in opponent’s scoring rate, 4th in EPA allowed per play, and 8th in conversion rate allowed, so they have been a strong defense. However, as dysfunctional as the Jaguars have been on offense, they’re only giving up four fantasy points per game so far. That could be because they’ve played the Panthers, Bengals, and Texans, but the Jags have only given up three sacks all season and are middle of the pack in turnover rate. That makes it hard for a defense to put up tons of fantasy points against them, and this 49ers defense will now be without Nick Bosa, which should make things even harder.
The Lions have not been a strong defense so far this season, but they’ve also played the Ravens, Packers, and Bears. The Bears are the worst offense of the group, and you could make an argument that they’re still at least an media NFL offense. I expect things to be a little easier for the Lions this week against the Browns, who don’t give up many sacks, but are 3rd-worst in the NFL in scoring rate and 8th-worst in turnover rate. Through three weeks, the Browns have given up an media of 9.3 fantasy points per game, so maybe the Lions can get up near double digits.
The Browns and Rams are both defenses I like and would normally play, but they are in really bad matchups. The Browns rank 4th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, 8th in opponents’ scoring rate, while the Rams rank 8th in turnover rate, 8th in completion rate allowed, and 9th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate. The Browns will get a Lions offense that gives up 0.7 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, while the Rams face a Colts offense that has given up -1.33 fantasy points to opposing defenses. I think it’s best to avoid both this week.
The Falcons rank 1st in completion rate allowed, 6th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, and 6th in EPA allowed per play, but I think we get Jayden Daniels back this week, so I don’t really want to play them against the Commanders. If Daniels sits, I will likely move the Falcons up.
The Bears rank 7th in turnover rate, which is great, but they lost Jaylon Johnson for the entire season, and I just don’t think they’re going to be a defense that I want to trust, even in a plus matchup against the Raiders.
The Bucs rank 5th in tackles of a loss or no gain and 8th in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity Rate, but get a bad matchup against an Eagles offense that protects the quarterback well and is going to try and control the clock on the ground.
Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.